As a result, this crop may not have benefitted to the same extent from rapeseed’s price highs. Linseed, however, is understood now to be trading separately to oilseed rape. However, crush demand is set to be firm also, which could keep balances tight in the first half of the marketing year. However, new-crop (Nov-22) prices are lagging previous May-21 highs, as supply is expected to improve globally next season. Oilseed rape follows closely behind, considering high prices supported from inelastic demand for rapeseed and rapeseed oil. As such, milling wheat gross margins look attractive for harvest 22 especially in scenario 1. This season’s average has been higher on the year due to the current tight supply and concerns around milling wheat availability. Though the difference in the price paid for fertiliser makes a large difference in gross margin.įor the milling wheat premium for harvest 22, this uses an average for the 2021/22 season to date. Perhaps to no surprise with strong global wheat values supporting UK feed wheat futures, milling wheat and feed wheat are top performers in both scenarios. The second scenario takes the top recorded prices this season for these three fertilisers, to compare profitability. The first scenario takes an average season-to-date for UK produced AN 34%, Muriate of Potash and Triple Super Phosphate. For many businesses, the story will rely on price paid for fertiliser and this impact on variable cost for harvest 22. Using two scenarios, profitability between crops can be assessed for harvest 22. Harvest 22 – costs high but prices higher… These figures may also give an indication of what the UK planted area may look like too. It is more to understand a difference in profitability by year, and to support decision making for harvest 23 cropping. The aim of these figures is to not directly indicate how much profit can be made by each crop, because variable costs will differ by farm. Today, I explore how this changing picture has impacted on gross margins. ![]() This season-to-date (Jul-Apr), UK produced AN (34.5% N) prices have averaged £601.00/t, up 138% (+£349.00/t) from the average over the 2020/21 season. A tight supply and demand balance for grains across the board, intensified by the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine, has driven values to record highs in recent months. This is almost double the price from this time last year, where new crop futures (Nov-21) closed at £178.75/t (). ![]() UK feed wheat new crop futures (Nov-22) closed yesterday at £340.10/t. We are fast approaching harvest 22 and looking now to harvest 23 for cropping decisions, but the cost and margin picture looks very different to this time last year. Weekly finished auction markets by region
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